If you want to read how I ended up with my prediction, please go ahead. If you want to jump in and provide your own opinion of my final decision, please go ahead as well.
I will go with a point system after I qualify my prediction for each major part of the game.
Big Men:
Thompson has been playing out of his mind upon being inserted in the starting line-up (more on this later) and sure has been channeling his inner Dennis Rodman impersonation, hid idol, without the technical fouls and the creative hair color and designs. Mozgov has been playing solid and know his role real well as the center for this team. Given the emergence of these big men in the last two playoff rounds, they sure have a strong momentum going for them.
But let me ask you this question; is this pair better than the Smash Brothers of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph both on offense and defense? Given the demise of the Memphis Grizzlies at the hands of the Warriors due to their inability to shoot three-pointers or even mid-range jumpers, I am not sure if the same defensive schemes could be applied here thus the Warriors cannot just pack the paint just like what they did in the last three games in the second round.
Being that the Warriors played the premier big men with the up and coming Davis, Smash Brothers, and still a formidable Howard; they have faced more potent forwards and centers compared to this duo thus they will be able to negate the strengths of Mozgov and Thompson.
Advantage: Warriors (+ 1)
Wings and Guards:
The 2015 NBA Finals will exhibit the reigning MVP in Curry vs. the Best Player in the past two months in King James. The only way to humanly possible to defend James is to defend him “like” Tony Allen. Before I get a tongue lashing on this, let me clarify, James has been building brick houses with his outside shot these playoffs. I would rather be defeated by James shooting from the outside than him attacking the rim “without regard to human life” as you YouTube his dunk on Garnett years ago or by making Knicks dropout JR Smith and Iman Shumpert as superstars.
In order to have an ounce of success on this matter, let the big men of the Warriors build a wall as much as possible without leaving the shooters.
As the Warriors have faced a King James’ type player with the other James (Harden), the question now is have the wing players of the Cavs faced the potency of a Curry and Thompson in the Playoffs with all due respect to Rose and Butler? In addition, now that Thompson does not have to deal with an Allen on defense and a Harden on offense, I believe he will have a breakout series this finals if Shumpert is the primary defender for Curry.
Though the greatness of King James is imminent but the collective strength of the Warriors backcourt will trump that slightly in spite of health issues for Thompson while Irving is not at 100%.
Advantage: Warriors (+1)
Bench:
It is unfortunate that Varejao and Love are out for the season and Irving is hobbled definitely has shortened the bench for the Cavs. A silver lining though is that this gave opportunity for Dellavedova and Thompson opportunity to shine through these Playoffs. On the other hand, it seems like the Warriors will be at full strength given that indeed Thompson is good to go and Speights is also ready to go back in the rotation, this will definitely bolster more options for the Warriors.
Given that in the Playoffs normally the rotation is shortened and that less is more, but I think due to injuries for the Cavs may be too big of a hole to cover.
Advantage: Warriors (+1)
Coaching:
What coaching adjustments did David Blatt made these playoffs that would be fully credited to him? Or most of the moves he made were by default due to injuries? Not to belittle his coaching acumen, but with limited options due to injuries and not much coaching adjustments seen so far? And this is worsened by almost calling a time-out when they were none left and drew up a play wherein James becomes an inbounder when in fact he made the three to cripple the Bulls emotionally.
On the other hand, you have Steve Kerr who has been in the Finals as a player with Coach Pop and Coach Jackson, arguably two of the premier coaches in modern times; how can you go against him? In addition, his staff of Gentry who will lead the Pelicans next season is definitely more experienced than Lue. With the lack of adjustment for the coaching staff of the Cavs, the Warriors have been brilliant in adjusting and figuring out to capitalize on strengths while minimizing their weaknesses.
Advantage: Warriors (+2)
X Factor:
Would Dellavedova injure or indirectly eject someone?
Will the Warriors be able to rebound as a team and/or not beat themselves with turnovers?
How exactly will the injuries to Irving and Thompson impact this series?
Advantage: None
Conclusion: Given that in almost every facet, I view the Warriors being at an advantage 5-0 in my very subject / non scientific analysis, they will win in five games.
Why will the Warriors win:
In addition to the breakdown above, the Mavs and the Spurs won championships the past few years due to great defense but more importantly, wonderful offense wherein there is not much isolation plays. If it was not for the Ray Allen three, the Spurs could have been that back-to-back champions which has eluded that franchise. And the win over the Thunder by the Heat was based on better players for the Heat compared to their opponents. In addition, OKC is know to be isolation heavy on offense thus Miami won then.
In short, great ball movement that does not rely on isolation plays has been the ones who lifted the Larry O’Brien trophy. The Warriors definitely embody this kind of offense.
Also, a team of Wade, Bosh, and James plus Allen was squashed in the Finals by the Spurs, how much more now that practically James is carrying this team on his own with a hobbled Irving.
Last, with the 2-2-1-1-1 set-up, I would like to have the Cavs with two games but I think that the Warriors will be undefeated in their home court which they have protected very well all throughout this season.
Why will the Cavs win:
I really wish I am so wrong with all of my analysis above. I do want James to win especially for the Cavs franchise. So if James supersede MJ-like performances, they can win. If for some reason the Cavs are open for threes, they will win. If for some reason that the Warriors will have more turnovers than rebounds, definitely they will win it all.
Regardless if my analysis is right or wrong, I just wish it would be a competitive and exciting NBA Finals.